It was an isolated local computer, a client-server solution and then finally a web-enabled communication product on its way to ubiquity. The evolution of the PC went through stages. So in practice, there was no big bang start to the post mainframe era. It wasn’t until PC servers and server software like that from Novell and networking from 3COM became commonplace that mainframes and minis began to fade. In fact, in the beginning there was a thriving market for software and hardware that would allow PCs to be used as terminals to access central computers. The two technologies lived side-by-side for many years. Most companies that supplied PCs to workers maintained large computers for “mission critical” applications like accounting and engineering. That may be true as it was true when the PC was new. Whitman notes that the iPad is not the only computer people use and most have a PC as well. Most people today would say a PC is a “real computer” and the Mainframe is simply an old computer. But that does not mean that usage (and hence value capture) did not migrate. The original PC was certainly not competitive with Mainframe computers and perhaps it still isn’t. The new tablet product may not appear at first glance to be competitive with the current definition of a PC (though it might very well be a personal computer.) But definitions tend to evolve. Categorization choices make all the difference when thinking about strategy. Placing the iPad in the “competitor” category is an important admission for a PC company. The iPad is growing at an average of 170% y/y (average of two quarters) while the Windows PC market is growing at an average of 1.9% over the same period (source: Gartner, company reports). In fact, the iPad alone overtook Dell in Q3 and might overtake HP in two quarters. Note that the combined iPad+Mac has already overtaken Dell. When the quarterly shipment data is seen as a chart the doubt of this happening disappears: We will try to become the champion in 2013. “We need to improve our game and our products to take over the leadership position. HP’s CEO Meg Whitman admitted that, when iPads are included, Apple will overtake HP as the world’s leader in computer shipments.
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